PCA releases spring 2021 cement consumption and construction activity outlook

Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan recently presented their annual spring cement consumption forecast, predicting an increase in cement consumption for 2021 and 2022.

“Remarkably, U.S. cement consumption recorded 2% growth during 2020. It is remarkable because Covid-19 exerted a terrible toll on the economy. Consumers bunkered down; states enacted rigid lockdowns. Real GDP declined to a rate not matched since 1946 as the economy transitioned from war time to peace time,” said Sullivan. “Nearly 9.5 million fewer jobs now exist compared to pre-Covid-19 levels. Many businesses did not survive the threat. And yet through all of this, cement consumption grew.”

Sullivan noted while major storms resulted in a weak 2021 start, it is likely that cement consumption growth will match or exceed 2020’s performance. Record low mortgage rates have prompted strong gains in 2020 single family construction. The low rates are expected to remain in-place through 2021, resulting in further strong demand for cement consumption. Non-residential declines are expected to continue this year and next, but the drag on overall growth is expected to lessen. And as oil prices rise, oil well cement will increase as well.

“This recovery is predicated on continued progress in fighting Covid-19. The rapid pace in vaccinations and increased mask usage have resulted in a decline in death rates from over 3000 daily in January 2021 to less than 825 today,” said Sullivan. “The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projects the path of Covid-19 through the second quarter of 2021. Their forecast suggests a sustained and significant decline in daily Covid-19 deaths to less than 170. Progress associated with Covid-19 is the critical factor in the near-term outlook.”

Sullivan mentioned that the most significant long-term impact on cement consumption may unfold this year, the proposed US$ 2.2 trillion, 8-year infrastructure program. The program expands the traditional definition of infrastructure and contains more than US$ 1.2 trillion in low or no cement intensive projects. If the Biden administration’s proposal passes as is, it could contribute more than 7 million metric tons annually.

“After committing to spending US$ 5.2 trillion in Covid-19 relief and adding another US$ 2 trillion in operations, the federal U.S. debt could rise US$ 7 trillion dollars in 2020-2021. This puts the discussion of the Biden proposal into context. The proposal must pay for itself which means higher taxes. While investing in traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges has bi-partisan appeal, tax increases and some programs dubiously labeled as infrastructure have caused concern. This concern threatens the potential passage on the infrastructure initiative,” said Sullivan.


Related articles:


PCA forecasts moderate cement consumption growth at 2.3 % in 2019

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) released its annual Spring Forecast which envisions strong to moderate growth for cement consumption through 2019 and into 2020. PCA Market Intelligence expects...


2019 forecast for moderate growth for GDP and cement consumption

At a press conference held at the 2019 World of Concrete, Portland Cement Association (PCA) Executive Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan predicted moderate growth in 2019 for the overall...


PCA forecasts modest cement and construction growth at 2020 world of concrete

During the 2020 World of Concrete in Las Vegas/Nevada in February the Portland Cement Association (PCA) held a press conference, where PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan...


PCA forecasts less growth in 2019 and 2020

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group forecast for cement consumption over the next two years, shows less growth compared with 2018. This year’s rate of change is 2.9?%....

Issue 2013-02

PCA expects strong growth in cement

Improving underlying economic fundamentals, the existence of large pent-up demand balances, and the diminishment of economic fiscal cliff uncertainty will combine to result in strong growth rates in...