Construction Outlook 2026 - In which markets can we expect growth?

Energy-efficient refurbishment has not lived up to expectations in recent years, with Italy being the only exception due to its super bonus. While panel discussions continue to focus on the Green Deal, the projections for energy-efficient refurbishment are often overly ambitious. At the 2025 World Economic Forum, Ursula von der Leyen shifted the EU Commission’s focus from climate goals to other priorities, prompting some to declare the “end of the Green Deal,” though this seems premature.

The link between new construction and renovation is crucial to under-stand. When a new home is completed, it often triggers relocations, with a newly built home leading to up to five relocations. This relocation chain means that a quarter of renovations are triggered by moving. As building completions decline in Germany, the reasons for renovations will also decrease. The argument that a lack of new construction will boost renovations is therefore flawed. This is evident in the declining sales and orders in the painting trade.

In Europe, some countries, like France, have passed their construction peak, while Germany has just reached the bottom. Recent growth in building permits suggests that renovations will increase again in 2026. Additionally, lower interest rates have spurred sales of used properties, particularly residential ones, which often require renovation. This trend is already visible in rising sales of floor coverings and increased interest in sanitaryware. The presentation will also explore specific developments in other countries.